IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-13.5	#343
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.0	#281
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-9.2	#347

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.4	#300

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.4%	9.3%	3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	15.9	16.0

.500 or above	4.6%	18.6%	4.4%
.500 or above in Conference	40.0%	69.3%	39.6%
Conference Champion	3.3%	9.4%	3.2%
Last Place in Conference	12.6%	4.2%	12.7%

First Four	3.2%	8.2%	3.2%
First Round	1.5%	5.5%	1.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 1.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 8
Quad 3	0 - 5	0 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 10	9 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	79	@ South Florida	L	54-77	1%
Nov 09, 2019	8	@ Gonzaga	L	55-89	0.1%
Nov 16, 2019	137	@ Grand Canyon	L	59-77	5%
Nov 19, 2019	50	@ Kansas St.	L	47-73	1%
Nov 21, 2019	72	@ Pittsburgh	L	54-78	2%
Nov 30, 2019	186	@ Sam Houston St.	L	59-74	10%
Dec 04, 2019	100	@ Tulsa	L	57-78	3%
Dec 07, 2019	169	@ UTEP	L	57-73	8%
Dec 14, 2019	74	@ Oregon St.	L	54-78	2%
Dec 21, 2019	152	@ North Texas	L	54-71	7%
Dec 29, 2019	55	@ New Mexico St.	L	54-80	1%
Dec 29, 2019	157	@ Washington St.	L	63-80	8%
Jan 04, 2020	353	@ Mississippi Valley	W	68-67	55%
Jan 11, 2020	352	@ Alabama A&M	W	63-62	53%
Jan 13, 2020	332	@ Alabama St.	L	64-69	33%
Jan 18, 2020	346	Southern	W	66-62	61%
Jan 20, 2020	345	Alcorn St.	W	66-63	61%
Jan 25, 2020	277	@ Prairie View	L	65-75	20%
Jan 27, 2020	265	@ Texas Southern	L	71-82	18%
Feb 01, 2020	269	Grambling St.	L	66-71	35%
Feb 03, 2020	303	Jackson St.	L	61-63	43%
Feb 08, 2020	352	Alabama A&M	W	66-59	72%
Feb 10, 2020	332	Alabama St.	W	67-66	53%
Feb 15, 2020	346	@ Southern	L	63-65	41%
Feb 17, 2020	345	@ Alcorn St.	L	63-66	41%
Feb 22, 2020	277	Prairie View	L	68-72	37%
Feb 24, 2020	265	Texas Southern	L	74-79	35%
Feb 29, 2020	269	@ Grambling St.	L	63-74	19%
Mar 02, 2020	303	@ Jackson St.	L	58-66	25%
Mar 07, 2020	353	Mississippi Valley	W	71-64	73%
Projected Record						8 - 22	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.1		3.3	1st
2nd											0.1	0.6	1.7	1.9	1.0	0.4	0.0				5.6	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.3	3.0	2.7	0.9	0.1	0.0					8.1	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.0	4.0	2.9	0.7	0.1	0.0						9.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	2.8	5.1	3.4	0.6	0.0								12.5	5th
6th						0.1	0.9	3.7	5.6	3.2	0.6	0.1									14.1	6th
7th					0.1	1.2	4.3	5.6	2.8	0.4	0.0										14.5	7th
8th			0.0	0.3	1.7	4.2	4.7	1.9	0.3	0.0											13.0	8th
9th		0.0	0.6	2.1	4.1	3.1	1.2	0.1	0.0												11.3	9th
10th	0.3	1.1	2.2	2.5	1.4	0.4	0.0														7.9	10th

Total	0.3	1.2	2.8	4.9	7.2	9.0	11.2	11.8	11.6	10.9	9.3	7.2	5.3	3.5	2.0	1.4	0.4	0.2	0.1			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	98.8%	0.4		0.4	0.0
15-3	74.0%	1.0		0.7	0.3	0.0
14-4	44.7%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	16.0%	0.6		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.5%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.3%	3.3		1.9	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		16.2%	16.2%		15.1																0.0	0.0	0.0
17-1	0.2%		39.3%	39.3%		15.8																0.0	0.1	0.1
16-2	0.4%		35.0%	35.0%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3
15-3	1.4%		19.9%	19.9%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.3	1.1
14-4	2.0%		20.6%	20.6%		16.0																0.0	0.4	1.6
13-5	3.5%		14.5%	14.5%		16.0																	0.5	3.0
12-6	5.3%		10.2%	10.2%		16.0																0.0	0.5	4.7
11-7	7.2%		6.2%	6.2%		16.0																	0.4	6.7
10-8	9.3%		4.5%	4.5%		16.0																	0.4	8.9
9-9	10.9%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																	0.2	10.6
8-10	11.6%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																	0.2	11.3
7-11	11.8%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	11.7
6-12	11.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.2
5-13	9.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
4-14	7.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.2
3-15	4.9%																							4.9
2-16	2.8%																							2.8
1-17	1.2%																							1.2
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		3.4%	3.4%	0.0%	16.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	3.3	96.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%